Kenya Is In Trouble, Serious Trouble
By Thomas C. Mountain
Faced with a combination of body blows ranging from spiking prices for
maize, import dependent Kenya's staple food, IMF mandated food subsidy cuts,
a foolhardy USA instigated invasion of Somalia, election triggered ethnic
warfare and a simmering independence movement by the Muslims in the Mombasa
coastal region Kenya is in trouble, serious trouble.
Hunger speculators lead by financial terrorists such as Goldman Sachs are
using the drought in the USA, the world's largest producer of maize/corn to
drive prices to what are predicted to be record levels, more than doubling
by early 2013 forcing Kenya's imported maize dependent population's
malnutrition rate into meltdown status.
It was record food prices that triggered the so called "Arab Spring" in
Tunisia and Egypt and Kenya stands on the brink of a similar explosion.
Compounding the hunger factor in Kenya is "Queen Christine" (no maize?
let them eat cake) Legarde of the IMF applying a hammer lock to Kenya's
chronically cash strapped governments budget with food subsidies for the
poorest scheduled to be slashed.
The USA instigated Kenya's criminally foolhardy invasion of Somalia and
has landed the Kenyan military, an ill-disciplined, brutal and corrupt band
of uniformed hoodlums, in a quagmire that is spreading the flames of
rebellion throughout Kenya's north eastern Somali population.
This week's assassination, apparently by a Kenyan police death squad, of a
popular Kenyan Somali nationalist sheik known for his anti-USA (read "Al
Queda linked terrorist) stance was a match that could well have lit the
fuse leading to an explosion from amongst long oppressed Somali's in
northern Kenya with a series of demonstrations and armed attacks on the
police still in progress.
These "riots" and "terrorist attacks on police" are taking place mainly in
the port city of Mombasa, home to a simmering independence movement amongst
the long marginalized Muslim population.
Today the mainly Muslim population of the coastal region is almost
unanimous in its desire for independence with opinion polls reporting up to
95% of the people supporting such.
While so far the situation around the "Africa's Great Lakes" regions main
port of Mombasa has yet to see any major outbreaks of armed violence
reports from the Somalia arms markets (supplied by the African Union
"peacekeepers" and the Ethiopian military) indicate that weapons are being
purchased in increasing numbers by coastal Muslim organizations. Even a
former Kenyan cabinet member from Mombasa has warned of an almost
inevitable uprising in the region.
Historically the Muslims along Kenya's coast, with its port of Mombasa being
vital to the economies of not only Kenya but Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and
South Sudan, were a semi-autonomous state with allegiance to the Sultan of
They claim that after Kenyan independence the Kikuyu regime made a secret
deal with Zanzibar allowing Kenya to "lease" the region for several
decades. The independence leadership on the coast claims this "lease" has
long since expired and they want to exercise their right to
With the coastal region long suffering from rampant corruption, nepotism,
economic neglect and marginalization along with the outright theft of
lucrative beach front lands by the top leadership in the Nairobi government
one might wonder why it has taken this long for an uprising to be born. A
future independent state in Mombasa has East Africa's busiest port, a
60,000 bpd oil refinery and the world famous hotels, why do they need
Since independence Kenya has been ruled by an ethnic minority Kikuyu
regime installed by the departing British colonialists. The spoils of power
were hoarded by an elite amongst the new Kikuyu rulers and the much larger
Luo tribe in the highlands has been left to scrape by on a few dollars a
day per capita.
If the now twice postponed elections were to be really free and fair few
doubt the the Luo will win and the Kikuyu will lose. Once in power the Luo
will waste little time seizing what they have only dreamed of having for
more than 50 years since independence.
In other words, if the Kikuyu elite lose the election they will lose
everything they have stolen fair and square from the trough of government
largess, down to the land sitting under some of the largest hotels in
Africa along Kenya's world famous beaches.
The last election in Kenya in 2007 saw another typical Kenya election
theft, but this time the Luo exploded. After a month or more of fire and the
sword, a couple thousand dead and hundreds of thousands ethnically cleansed
in the Rift Valley some sort of peace was finally restored with a "power
sharing deal". Power sharing as in doubling the number of government
Ministers so both national crime syndicates posing as political parties
could share in the spoils and in the process bleed the national treasury
The Luo people know all too well that they should be the victors in the
next election, postponed twice and still with no firm date set.
While a new power sharing deal struck in Nairobi's halls of government may
be accepted by the masses of poverty stricken Kenyan's with maize prices
doubling at the same time as the scheduled elections there is a strong
possibility that matters will be beyond containment and the pent up anger
of the Luo along with all the rest of Kenya over their half century of
grievances against their ethnic rivals the Kikuyu will not be satisfied
less a full scale transfer of power.
An ominous sign of things to come are reports of steady arms purchases on
the Somali black market by Kenyan militias both Luo and Kikuyu. The last
round of election triggered ethnic violence in 2007 was literally fire and
sword, with machetes being the weapons used in the massacres.
The introduction of automatic weapons adds a new, much more lethal dimension
to the next wave of ethnic violence and could lead to the violence spreading
much wider than in the past. It could also bring the ethnic based militias
more on par with the police and army making it much more difficult for the
Nairobi regime to contain matters.
Much has been written about how a new petroleum industry in Africa's Great
Lakes region is about to bring billions of petro dollars and economic
development with even Kenya finding oil in the Turkana region.
But all of this will go up in smoke, literally, if Kenya explodes in civil
war, both in the Rift Valley in the highlands and the Mombasa centered
"nation" along the Indian Ocean. What international energy company will
invest $billions in building oil pipelines from central Africa to the coast
if it has to pass through territory engulfed in civil war and reach a
Mombasa fighting for independence?
While Kenya may be able to postpone an outbreak of violence that is all
that will happen, it will just be a matter of buying time. The underlying
tensions in the region, fed by record high food prices and IMF enforced
food subsidy cuts, will need more than "power sharing" or the inevitable
crackdown on the budding independence movement on the coast to prevent
civil war breaking out in Kenya someday. Kenya is in trouble, serious
trouble, and 2013 may well see western hunger speculators cause an
explosion that will see a civil war splinter the country.
Thomas C. Mountain is the most widely distributed independent journalist in
Africa, living and reporting from Eritrea since 2006. His interviews can be
seen on Russian TV (RT) and Press TV.